As if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were not a sufficient reason for Moldovans to vote in a referendum in 2024 to align the country’s constitution with accession into the E.U. as a state, which would entail the government of Moldova giving up some sovereignty, Russia felt the need nonetheless to buy off votes to hinder Moldova from statehood. That the pro-statehood vote won, albeit ever so slightly ahead, given the purchased votes, can be interpreted as an indication that a significant majority of the half of the eligible voters probably wanted Moldova to accede. That the vote tally did not reflect this, whether through vote-buying or disinformation, damaged both Moldova’s accession legitimacy and that of the E.U. itself. Moreover, international law’s lack of enforcement can be inferred from the sheer scale of Russia’s monetary and political invasion of Moldova. The importance of enforcement is precisely because bullies tend to overstep repeatedly rather than just once. They can smell a lack of enforcement from many miles or kilometers away.
After the referendum’s results came in, Moldovan President Maia Sandu decried the “assault on democracy and freedom” by criminal groups whose goal was to buy 300,000 votes; Moldova’s police “documented 150,000 people being paid to vote.”[1] Less than 14,000 votes made the difference in the final tally. “In any democracy,” the president said, “it’s normal to have people who have different views. What’s not normal is to have a situation where criminal groups are bribing voters.”[2] This is especially problematic if the funding source is another country’s government. According to the police prior to the election, “The persons affiliated with the criminal organization led by [Ilan] Shor [a convicted oligarch] were instructed to recruit people to participate in the electoral ballot for sums of money and to be notified on the eve of the elections through the groups on Telegram regarding the candidate to be voted for, as well as to vote with the option ‘no’ in the referendum.”[3] Additionally, the E.U.’s Commission witnessed “unprecedented interference” by Russia in Moldova.[4] Thijs Reuten, a member of the E.U. Parliament, pointed to “an investigation in the weeks and months before the election that . . . uncovered substantial amounts of money being moved, not illegally, every day on many occasions from Russia to Moldova.”[5] A thread from vote-buying back to Russia is thus evident. If additional proof is needed, Reuten said that some “journalists went undercover in the networks that was (sic) distributing money to voters in order to use their vote or change their vote upon request of Russian actors and their allies.”[6]
In addition to the vote-buying, the disinformation campaign likely kept many eligible voters from even voting. Only about half of those eligible voted. Without a massive manipulation campaign orchestrated by a foreign government with its own vested interests in the result of the referendum, a higher percentage would be expected. By implication, even though the yes-vote won, that about half of only half of the eligible voters voted in favor of Moldova becoming an E.U. state means that only 25% of the total eligible electorate gave its consent. Such a result is spurious in terms of legitimacy. Decades after accession, a Moldovan politician could claim that Moldova should secede from the union in part because only 25% of the eligible citizens approved of statehood in the first place. So even though Moldova dodged a bullet (i.e., the yes-vote squeezed by), Russia was able to inflict damage ultimately on the E.U. itself. As the cases of Britain and Hungary show, the legitimacy of E.U. law, and the E.U. itself, was vulnerable even as late as 2024, which is just over 30 years after the E.U. began. A federal system is not the most stable of political systems, so legitimacy of a state-union relationship is crucial. Accordingly, the government of Moldova would not have been wrong were additional fortifications for legitimacy of accession sought after the referendum even though the yes-vote won.
Moreover, international law against such a massive and direct voter-manipulation of another country’s voters warranted real enforcement, such that were Russia to use the same strategy again, there would be negative repercussions. Unfortunately, that Russia was in the U.N. at the time does not mean that any such repercussions would be likely, as both Russia and Israel had been sailing through U.N. violations with utter impunity. If, moreover, the global system is to rely so much on the nation-state as the hegemonic and decisive unit of political organization, then the pitfalls that go with the principle of absolutist national sovereignty should not go unaddressed by the world.
1. Vincenzo
Genovese, “Moldova
President Alleges Vote-Buying Tainted E.U. Referendum Results,”
Euronews.com, October 21, 2024.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
