Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Will Breakthroughs Save the Planet?

The dire predictions concerning the probable impact of climate change on ecosystems, ocean-levels, and food-production, as well as on our species itself have understandably been made without taking into account the countervailing impact of technology yet to be invented. Instead, the focus has been on governmental, rather than business, efforts aimed at reducing carbon emissions. This too is understandable, as companies have consistently been oriented to their own profits rather than reducing externalized costs, such as pollution. This focus has left the element of technological innovation or invention out of the equation. Moreover, because it is not possible to predict whether our species will have invented technology in time for it to counter the predicted impacts of climate change, relying on such technology so as to obviate the need to act so as to limit or reduce carbon emissions would be foolish and reckless. Put another way, it was irresponsible as of 2020 at least to say that government restrictions on carbon emissions were not necessary because technology will be invented that will substantially reduce emissions or even remove the excess carbon from the atmosphere. This does not mean that such inventions will not be made in time to make a significant positive impact. It is indeed possible, moreover, that our species, homo sapiens, will be saved by its own knowledge after all, even though we do not seem capable of regulating the innate desire for instant gratification even if the species’ survival lies in the balance. An invention by Heliogen in 2019 was such a breakthrough that it was arguably the first invention capable of giving people such hope. That is, the step-forward represented by the invention was such that people at the time could hope that the most noxious future impacts of climate change might not be inevitable.

Heliogen, a clean-energy company, announced in November, 2019 that artificial intelligence and a field of mirrors could be used together to significantly reduce greenhouse emissions by industry. The invention could generate extreme heat above 1,000 degrees Celsius—a temperature that is about a quarter of that which is on the surface of the Sun. “The breakthrough means that, for the first time, concentrated solar energy can be used to create the extreme heat required to make cement, steel, glass and other industrial processes. In other words, carbon-free sunlight can replace fossil fuels in a heavy carbon-emitting corner of the economy that has been untouched by the clean energy revolution.”[1] These industries were “responsible for more than a fifth of global emissions, according to the EPA.”[2] Accordingly, Soon-Shiong, who sat at the time on the Heliogen board, said, “The potential to humankind is enormous  . . . The potential to business is unfathomable.”[3] Such statements have been unusual, to say the least. They connote hope even beyond their particular instance because they show that such breakthroughs are indeed possible. Indeed, more such breakthroughs would still be necessary to stave off the feared effects of climate change.

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, was an early backer of Heliogen. He characterized the invention as “a promising development in the quest to one day replace fossil fuel.”[4] As laudable as this, as well as a titan’s investment in such a widely beneficial venture, is, replacing fossil fuel does not reduce the accumulated carbon (and methane) in the atmosphere. At 410 ppm, the carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere was already highly problematic from the standpoint of eventual harm to the planet. At least at the time of Heliogen’s invention, it would do nothing to reduce carbon that had or would enter the atmosphere (or the oceans). Ultimately, staving off climate change due to carbon emissions would entail extracting carbon (and methane) from the atmosphere and oceans.

Therefore, the breakthrough itself was not enough to relieve governments and businesses from pressure to drastically reduce carbon emissions. Indeed, carbon would continue to accumulate in the atmosphere from the cement and steel industries before the full implementation of the ovens (and storage for rainy days), as well as from business more generally in which the new technology is not applicable. Methane would still be emitted from permafrost as it melts at northern latitudes. In short, the breakthrough could be expected to reduce the emission of carbon while the remaining emissions increase the accumulated carbon in the atmosphere and oceans. Even so, the sheer existence of one breakthrough pertaining to climate change can give us hope that other breakthroughs, even pertaining to reducing accumulated carbon and methane, will happen even if we could not factor them in.

1. Matt Egan, “Secretive Energy Startup Backed by Bill Gates Achieves Solar Breakthrough,” CNN Business, November 19, 2019.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.