The probable impacts of climate
change are anything but straightforward, and thus predictable. From the
standpoint of mid-2024, huge changes could be in store for Europe and other
continents. The magnitude of the shifts is particularly worthy of notice, such
that the changes being unleashed even as of 2024 and especially in the decades following
the 2020s will be difficult to reverse or even change even if a Green
revolution were to take hold. It bears noting that in 2023, the increase in energy
usage globally outstripped contribution from alternative or clean energy, such
that even more fossil fuel was used to meet the post-pandemic demand. A look at
Europe provides a good case study of the unstoppable magnitude of some of the
changes already underway.
I cropped Duncan Porter's photos so the area covered in the background would be the same.
Duncan Porter took a photo of the
Rhone glacier in Europe on August 4, 2024. He had taken a photo fifteen years
minus one day earlier at the same spot. The loss of ice is palpable, reflecting
the fact that Europe was as of 2024 the world’s fastest-warming continent, with
temperatures running 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels whereas
the global increase stood at 1.3 degrees higher—very close indeed to the baleful
planetary threshold of 1.5 degrees.[1]
In short, Europe had already crossed that boundary set by scientists, and the empirical
evidence could be seen in the massive loss of ice at the Rhone glacier.
When Porter took his “after” picture
in early August, 2024, Europe was in the midst of “one of the most prolonged
and intense” heatwaves on record, with temperatures consistently exceeding
historical averages, “with some areas experiencing unprecedented highs. This
prolonged heat . . . led to significant ecological stress, particularly on
heathlands, which are critical stopover points and breeding grounds for
migratory birds.”[2] With
temperatures at 2.3 degrees higher on average than the pre-industrial level,
Europe could expect such heatwaves as a matter of course, or the new normal, with
significant ecological shifts resulting.
Lest linearity be assumed, Western
Europe also faced the prospect of the end of the Gulf Stream, which is part of
the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). That current sends warm
ocean water over to Northern Europe from
Florida and warms Western Europe, especially during the winter. Should this
current cease from an influx of melted fresh water, European winters would be
much colder (think Moscow). By 2024, it had been well established that melting
freshwater from Greenland’s ice sheet was slowing down the Gulf Stream, and
earlier than climate models had suggested. The question was when rather than
if. In 2023, Politico reported, “A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was likely to occur ‘around mid-century under
the current scenario of future emissions’—perhaps as soon as 2025 and not later
than 2095, said Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen from the University of
Copenhagen in a per-reviewed study published in Nature Communications.”[3]
In other words, for Europeans sweating out the long heatwave during the summer
of 2024, the perplexing news was that “Atlantic Ocean current that keeps large
parts of Europe warm could come to an abrupt and catastrophic stop any time in
the coming decades.”[4]
From the vantage point of 2024, prolonged
heatwaves during summers and much colder winters could thus be the volatile,
nonlinear climate-future of Europe. Uncharted territory is a good way to
describe the possible, even probable changes in the offing. I don’t believe even
scientists knew how the colder ocean water during the summers would impact the
heatwaves, and how the average 2.3 degree temperature increase would impact
winters that would otherwise be colder the loss of the Gulf Stream. Such
interaction effects may pale next to severe heatwaves and no Gulf Stream, such
that hot summers and very cold winters could run for decades through the 21st
century.
Meanwhile, in North America, the Midwest was projected to get much hotter, with some places in the Southwest possibly becoming uninhabitable, while Florida and the East Coast would be cooler than otherwise if the Gulf Stream shuts down. So, Europeans were not alone in being beset with unknown interaction effects. Going into uncharted territory may be titillating, but when the reality of a changed world sets in, the excitement will likely quickly wear off. With such huge changes as the Gulf Stream shutting down, climatic shifts will be of such magnitude that shifting back would not be likely.
2. Luke Hanrahan, “Heathlands under Siege,” Euronews, August 5, 2024.
3. Karl Mathiesen, “Gulf Stream Shutoff Could Happen this Century, Scientists Warn,” Politico, July 25, 2023.
4. Ibid.
